Economic Trends and the "Dollar Milkshake" with Donald Trump's Inauguration

Expert Points to Dollar Strength as a Trend

Milson Junior, also known as Jukira, a trader and influencer associated with XP Group, highlights the dollar's upward trajectory.

According to him, the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, scheduled for Monday (20) in the United States, will have a significant impact on the path of the American currency. Since last year, the dollar has shown a consistent cycle of gains, and Jukira believes that the new administration's policies will play a key role in shaping the global economy's future direction.

"Following his election, several currencies showed signs of weakness. The euro, for instance, lost value and is approaching parity with the dollar," recalls Jukira. He emphasizes that the dollar's strengthening is likely to continue in the coming weeks.

The Role of Global Liquidity

If Trump adopts protectionist policies similar to those in his previous administration, countries may allow their currencies to depreciate, fueling the phenomenon known as the "dollar milkshake theory." This concept describes the strengthening of the dollar as it absorbs liquidity from other global economies.

"The United States is attracting dollars, particularly through protectionist measures. If Trump supports American companies, the dollar will likely appreciate even further," Jukira explains. In this scenario, the DXY index, which tracks the dollar's performance against a basket of international currencies, becomes a critical indicator for analysis.

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Treasury Bonds and Corporate Earnings

In addition to the DXY, another key focus is U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 10-year notes. These treasuries, according to the expert, reflect both the financial performance of American companies in the last quarter and the high levels of government debt.

Jukira points out that corporate earnings reports released during this early phase of Trump's administration may influence market confidence, making these bonds essential for investors and analysts to monitor.

Inaugural Speech Impacts

The tone of Trump's inaugural speech will also be a key element in understanding the direction of economic policies. "A protectionist speech could trigger reactions from other countries," notes Jukira.

The relationship between the United States and China will be a critical area to watch. Should Trump implement tariffs or trade restrictions, China might respond in ways that affect dependent markets, such as Brazil, which exports significant volumes of commodities to the Chinese market.

The Role of X (formerly Twitter)

Jukira concludes by highlighting the importance of monitoring X, the platform previously known as Twitter, which was Trump's primary channel for direct communication during his previous term. "We could return to the days when he made explosive statements there. It's crucial to pay attention to his posts, as they may have global impacts."

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With Donald Trump's inauguration, the financial market is bracing for significant adjustments, particularly regarding the dollar. Protectionist measures, trade policies, and the new president's communications will be decisive in shaping the economic trajectory of the United States and the global landscape.

CODE: OTTO2025